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July, 2008
Forward this Newsletter
Compliments of: Amy Simonson
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Hello, Amy
Simonson,
Please take a
moment to complete our 9
Question Client Survey. Your continued feedback will help us
improve. |
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2008 Quarterly Commentary |
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by Gordon T. Wegwart
President, Chief Investment
Officer
Verity Investments,
Inc.
Member FINRA, Registered Investment
Adviser | | |
June 30, 2008
As the second
quarter ended, the domestic equity markets were revisiting the lows
set in March. Surging increases in the cost of energy continued to
drain consumer strength and confidence and call into question
forward estimates of corporate profitability. Renewed concerns about
the strength of the financial system also pressured the market, as
the adequacy of banks' capital reserves were scrutinized amidst a
still weakening real estate market. These are only the headline
issues. The current environment is extraordinarily complex and
remains quite dangerous, so identifying simple investment themes to
comfortably and profitably exploit is a challenging goal.
The good news
for the Core Model is continued portfolio stability to date with a
small gain in value for the quarter. We have thus far weathered the
upheavals by continuing to implement a strategy built around
uncommonly broad asset class diversification complemented by
targeted short positions. Our objective is to identify areas of
relative strength amidst the turmoil that may contribute to
diversification in the short run and become strong growth
opportunities when the market ultimately turns higher.
In that regard,
we have maintained a strong and profitable allocation to gold and
precious metals for several years, and we feel there is further
upside potential for numerous fundamental reasons. Alternative
energy has sharply corrected after a strong performance in late
2007, but we believe this sector holds significant opportunity
moving forward. More recently, we began early in the year building a
position in an exchange-traded fund comprised of water related
stocks, which have demonstrated much greater strength than the broad
market coming off the March lows. We have also rotated some of our
capital into mid-cap growth for the upside potential we anticipate
in a market rebound. As the quarter ended, we began an allocation to
health care, which is beginning to show stability on a relative
basis and appears positioned for long term growth.
The foreseeable
future could be a grind as the economy works through a daunting set
of problems while the markets appear to be conclusively trending
lower in the intermediate term. Although our task in times like
these can be laborious, we are optimistic about the degree of
profitability that may lie ahead if we handle this period well.
While working to limit risk, we will seek good risk/reward
opportunities as we continue to manage for relative stability in the
short run and strong total returns over the longer term.
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Comparative
Results During the Recent Market Decline |
| Core Model Performance
Addendum |
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In bear
markets, broad domestic equity indices typically suffer price
declines of 28% - 30%.
To read the full article, click
here.
The S&P 500
reached an all time closing high on October 9, 2007. From that
point, through June 30, 2008, the price had dropped 18.22%, and the
value on a total return basis, after adjusting for dividends, had
dropped 16.13%. Other broad domestic equity indices performed
similarly.
During this
same period, the Verity Core Model composite total return was only
slightly below break- even at -1.03%. |
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Managing
Volatility and Return |
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The Risk /
Reward Balance
To read the full article, click
here
Beginning
conclusively in June, 2007, the unusually tame domestic equity
market conditions of recent years gave way to a dramatic increase in
volatility. Given the objectives of the Core Model, a review of its
response to this surge in volatility may provide insight into the
effectiveness of its strategy in meeting those objectives over the
particular period being reviewed. |
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Put Your Savings
Accounts to Work for You |
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Personal Savings
Accounts
at 1.89% APY
*Rates subject to
change.
Verity Asset
Management
Banking Services Provided by PBI
Bank, Louisville,
KY | | |
1-year CD
Rates at 3.55% APY
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Verity Asset Management
3100 Tower Blvd., Suite 808
Durham, NC 27707
(800) 247-6717
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